It takes longer for imports to improve and exports

It will take longer for imports to improve and exports to improve in June

it will take longer for imports to improve and exports to improve in June

China Construction machinery information

Guide: experts believe that the narrowing of the decline in foreign trade does not mean that the shrinking situation of foreign demand has fundamentally improved. Figures released by the General Administration of Customs on the 10th showed that China's total import and export value in June was US $182.57 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%. Among them, exports decreased by 21.4% and imports decreased by 13.2%. In June, China's import and export, export

experts believe that the narrowing of the decline in foreign trade does not mean that there is a fundamental improvement in the shrinking situation of external demand.

figures released by the General Administration of Customs on the 10th showed that 6 has made it a positioning energy. In January, China's total import and export value was US $182.57 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%. Among them, exports decreased by 21.4% and imports decreased by 13.2%. In June, our country hopes to bring you assistance! The year-on-year decline in imports and exports, exports and imports decreased by 7 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points and 14.8 percentage points respectively compared with the cumulative year-on-year decline in the first five months of this year. However, relevant experts believe that the continuous narrowing of the decline in foreign trade does not mean that the contraction in external demand has fundamentally improved

"according to a series of leading indicators, the recession in developed countries has reached the bottom, and at present, the global market share of Chinese products is also rising. The double drive of increased demand and market share has driven exports to a better trend." Liunenghua, a researcher from the research department of the Bank of communications, said that China's exports may return to positive year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter, mainly because the world's major developed economies may hit the bottom and rebound in the fourth quarter, while China's import and export base was also low in the fourth quarter of last year

"the import environment has improved significantly in June," said zhangyansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the national development and Reform Commission. In June, the narrowing of the import decline exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the pull of China's economic recovery, and the rapid growth of investment led to strong social demand, which also verified the previous judgment that China's economy will recover earlier than the world and imports will rebound before exports

Zhang Yansheng believes that the export situation has not improved significantly. At present, the economy of the United States, Japan and Europe shows no significant signs of improvement. Although the financial industry has stabilized, the unemployment rate is still high, and the real economy has not improved. Therefore, it will take longer for the external demand situation to improve. He predicted that the decline in imports would continue to narrow in July, and exports would not be significantly better. Why would things tied with plastic ropes become more and more loose? It still maintained the data of the first half of the year, fluctuating up and down; Even the narrowing is very slow

Zhang Yansheng reminded that "signs of improvement" have appeared, and whether it is a "turning point" remains to be confirmed. As the situation of foreign demand is still grim, it is not ruled out that there may be a recurrence. It is estimated that the rebound in foreign trade may have to wait until next year. It is expected that China's exports will decline by 10% and imports will decline by less than 5%

for the data released on the 10th, chenzhongtao, senior economist of the national logistics information center, said that the year-on-year decline in imports and exports narrowed significantly, which is basically in line with expectations, and the trend of further improvement in imports and exports may have taken shape. Excluding the dollar valuation factor, the real import and export rebound occurred earlier. The bottom of physical import and export volume was in January and February. In terms of export, the new export order index in the manufacturing purchasing manager index PMI, which reflects the status of export orders, has increased for seven consecutive months

signs of improvement in the world economy are considered to be the main reason for the narrowing of export decline. Lihuiyong, chief Macro Analyst of Shenyin Wanguo, pointed out that according to a series of leading indicators, the recession in developed countries has reached the bottom, and at present, the global market share of Chinese products is also rising. The double drive of increased demand and market share has driven exports to a better trend

lihuiyong said that the key to the recovery of imports and exports depends on when the U.S. economy picks up, and the export rebound caused by increased demand is of practical significance. In the fourth quarter, China's exports may return to positive year-on-year growth, mainly because the world's major developed economies may hit the bottom and rebound in the fourth quarter, while China's import and export base was also low in the fourth quarter of last year

Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank in Greater China, even believes that by 2010, the source of China's economic growth will shift from investment to import and export again. He said that driven by the rebound of the economies of the United States, Europe and Japan from the trough, it is expected that the GDP growth rate of these three economies will rise from the current annual rate of -3% to 1% a year later, that is, an increase of 4 percentage points, and China's export growth rate will rebound strongly in 2010

at the same time, the growth rate of fixed asset investment may fall by about 10% to the trough next summer. Ma Jun's bearish view on the growth rate of investment next year is based on the following three points of analysis and prediction: first, the government led fixed asset investment, which accounts for about 25% of the total, is expected to peak in the next oneortwo months, when the growth rate is about 60% year-on-year, but it is estimated that it will be significantly reduced to 10% or less in the next year. Second, the fixed asset investment in manufacturing and mining, which accounts for about 43% of the total, is also expected to slow sharply from the current year-on-year growth rate of 29% to about 10% in the middle of next year. Third, real estate fixed asset investment, which accounts for about 23% of all fixed asset investment, is estimated to rise from the recent year-on-year growth of 5% to about 25% in 12 months

however, even if investment really becomes the main force driving economic growth again next year, its strength will be difficult to compare with that before the international financial crisis. Zhang Jianhua, director of the Research Bureau of the people's Bank of China, said that in the rising cycle from 2003 to 2007, the average growth rate of net exports was about 25%, and its contribution to China's GDP was more than 2.5 percentage points. Considering that even if the global economy turns positive in 2010 and recovers further in the future, due to the rebalancing effect of the crisis on the global economy, the global economic growth rate will be much lower than the level before the crisis, so the contribution of foreign demand to China's economy will be reduced from the original 2.5 percentage points to at most 1 percentage point